After digesting the information, the media outlet reports the last-place Tampa Bay Lightning have a 25 percent chance of getting the first pick in the draft.
That’s absolutely not true. It’s almost double that – a 48.2 percent chance. I’ll attempt to explain why.
The NHL release, which is completely accurate, but a little bit deceptive, lists the chances the 14 non-playoff teams have of winning the draft lottery. It ranges from 25 percent for the 30th place team (Tampa Bay) to 18.8 percent for the 29th place team (Los Angeles), all the way down to 0.5 percent for the 17th place team (Carolina Hurricanes).
So how does Tampa Bay get bumped from 25 percent to 48.2? It’s because of the fact teams winning the draft lottery can only move up four spots in the order of non-playoff teams. That means the percent chance of the sixth-worst to the 14th-worst teams winning the lottery get moved to the 30th-place team.
THN.com Blog: Clarifying the draft lottery details (The Hockey News) 
