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About This Page: This is a discussion on Baseball within the LetsGoKings.com forums, at Los Angeles Kings Hockey Fan Forum. I didn't get a Dodger Build-a-Bear. I want one! :(
I didn't get a Dodger Build-a-Bear. I want one! :(
__________________ "Just as you don't go up against a Sicilian when death is on the line, you don't go up against an Asian when math is involved." ~Chartrand
If you ask me, the chances of that happening increase greatly when you've got the kind of bat that Manny brings to the cleanup spot. You can bet that Kemp and Martin will be seeing a lot more fastballs because pitchers will be reluctant to throw away from the hitter (taking the chance that they might swing at bad pitches) so that they don't walk somebody on in front of Manny.
While having a good hitter batting behind you might put more balls in the strike-zone, it doesn’t mean these pitches are of the same quality than with a poor hitter on-deck. It’s not that the pitcher just wants to avoid walking a batter when a good hitter follows. The pitcher wants to keep the hitter off-base any way he can. Pitchers are not dumb. They understand that putting more balls in the strike-zone increases the chance that the hitter will reach base via a hit, possibly with power. So, pitchers may reach back for a little extra gas in these situations. This means that a good on-deck hitter has reason to lower a current batter’s chances of reaching base via a walk AND a hit. If the effort effect is larger than the protection effect, then a good on-deck hitter can hurt rather than help the batter in front of him. Since the effect is ambiguous we need to go to the data.
The results lead us to not only reject the protection hypothesis, but also we find evidence that good on-deck hitters actually harm the hit and power probabilities of the current batter. This is consistent with the effort hypothesis. However, the magnitude of the spillover is tiny and for all practical purposes the effect is zero. Even very good (bad) hitters have only a very small impact on the batters who precede them.
Oh sorry I forgot--nerds! Computers! Nerds using computers!
In simpler terms: the conventional wisdom is that a better on-deck hitter means the hitter at the plate will hit better because he sees better pitches to hit. However, the data generally does not support this conclusion.
Oh sorry I forgot--nerds! Computers! Nerds using computers!
In simpler terms: the conventional wisdom is that a better on-deck hitter means the hitter at the plate will hit better because he sees better pitches to hit. However, the data generally does not support this conclusion.
Give him a break man, "all he's ever tried to be is Juan Pierre"!
__________________ "11:19 -- You're not gonna believe this, but J.D. Drew took a called third strike to end the inning.
(Note: Dodgers, Braves and Cardinals fans everywhere are nodding and saying, "Yup ... been there, done that.")
Retarded manager says - "I can't give you an argument against Ethier. I can just give you an argument for Juan (Pierre). The job for us when (Rafael) Furcal went down and the quality of at-bats and the speed he gives us."
Yea, times have changed! Amazing what adding Manny and subtracting Juan Pierre can do. Just got this text message from my roommate who is visiting back home in St. Louis.
"At the game, pretty imposing lineup you have posted".
Yea, times have changed! Amazing what adding Manny and subtracting Juan Pierre can do. Just got this text message from my roommate who is visiting back home in St. Louis.
"At the game, pretty imposing lineup you have posted".
Never thought I'd see that.
Angel Berroa strikes fear into the hearts of every National League team!
The Natural
