Why 13-year contracts don't make sense (part 1)

[Birdman]

Originally Posted by CBGB

13 years ago, what was Joe Sakic making? If you had signed Joe Sakic to a 13 year 50 million dollar deal in 1994, which 13 years ago would have seemed OUTRAGEOUS, wouldn't you be kissing yourself to have Sakic locked up for 3.84 million NOW? (despite his injury status)

That's the thing. This may seem like a LOT of money now, but what's the cap going to be in 13 years? Will there be another lockout/strike? Will he even see this contract end, or will he retire at 33?

[King'sPawn]

Originally Posted by Lucky Life 420

Weak. A superficial look at the development of young star players, that in no way addresses the current reality of the new CBA.

Actually, it's an in-depth look at the development of young star players to an age past what's considered their "prime."

Everybody understands the risks involved signing these guys to long term deals. But we don't live in fantasy land where we have the luxury of seeing what these guys will turn into down the road. The reality is there are fewer and fewer talented, youngish guys who are hitting the open market, and if you want to EVER win, you have to lock your young talent up because you're aren't going to be able to find that 35 goal winger out there, without having to mortgage your future.

That's a GM's job, though: to decide whether a player's going to turn out all right and weigh the risks of a 13 year-extension vs. say, a 3 year extension.

And your argument is a slippery slope. You really think the 35 goal scoring wingers won't be out there? There will be even more because teams will be handcuffed financially with these ridiculous contracts.

And here's another harsh reality for Lombardi fans. The good GM's are going to be able to unload those crappy contracts to teams who choose to go the route of not locking their talent up. That's us.

Yeah, those teams desperate for a center sure clamored over getting Alexei Yashin when he was made available. If I recall correctly, wasn't he even put on waivers so then the Islanders could finally buy out his crappy contract?

And THAT was merely a player who underperformed. That's not even talking about injuries.

Just imagine if Allison, Palffy and/or Deadmarsh got 13 year contracts? Having to buy out those three contracts because of injury would give us a cap hit of what? $20 million for the next 26 years? But hey, at least our GM gambled!

The reality, is that the 13 year-contracts suck just as they did before the new CBA. In fact, they'll suck even more, when the good young players who AREN'T locked up long term hit free agency, and those stupid GMs have committed too much money for too long a time to make a bid.

The only way such a long contract is acceptable is if it's for a VERY low price, but no player in their right mind would give up years of free agency for a discount... so it's stupid either way.

[gescom]

LL420, it seems that you may be basing your entire argument against Dean Lombardi and the Kings on one thing... Mike Cammalleri.

other than Lubomir Visnovsky and Dustin Brown, Mike is the only other player that insofar fits your criteria of locking up your young talent.

[Wolvie]

It would have been one thing if Ovie ASKED for 13 years, but it's an entirely different thing that he accepted half that and Leonsis then GIFTED him 7 more years, half of which will likely see him past his prime (particularly the way he plays).

And if Ovie backed me into a corner for more than the 6 years he wanted, I'd be willing to give him more, but nothing beyond his early 30's. That's just asking for the inevitable drop-off. Because I think you can indeed argue that at age 29, despite the risks, the odds are still fairly good that a guy like Ovie will be in the middle of a monster year at age 29 when you'd otherwise be forced to renegotiate with him. But it's diminishing returns from all but the rarest few players, as dizzyd's analysis bore out.

And odds are very bad that a deal worth ~$10 million annually will ever really be a "steal" but better that it will be an albatross.