How Many NHL Draft Picks Make it to the NHL?

[theone]

some cool facts about the draft

How Many NHL Draft Picks Make it to the NHL?

[Sniper7]

DL said in an interview if you hit 40% in a draft you did a good job.

[Parineum]

Originally Posted by Sniper7

DL said in an interview if you hit 40% in a draft you did a good job.

That begs the question, what has DL's % been in the past?

[Birdman]

Do The Thrashers Have Large Talons?: The 2000 NHL Draft

[tom91381]

One of the all-time draft steals: Luc Robitaille, selected 171st overall in 1984.

[BabaORiley]

The you have #3 overall Aki Berg, who never exceeded 16 points in a season and held out for a year over money.

[PPharoah]

Originally Posted by BabaORiley

The you have #3 overall Aki Berg, who never exceeded 16 points in a season and held out for a year over money.

For every player who does well at the NHL level there are many who haven't and maybe never even got a shot.

[FroFan]

Originally Posted by BabaORiley

The you have #3 overall Aki Berg, who never exceeded 16 points in a season and held out for a year over money.

Yeah, but by the standards of that article (which primarily looks at games played to determine whether a player was successful), Berg was a success, having logged 604 games in the NHL.

I personally feel that the Kings blew it with Berg. A few years in the development system we have in place today would have probably helped his game and confidence a lot.

[trdi]

A first-round draft pick has a 63 percent chance of playing at least 200 NHL games.

That seems surprisingly low. Ok, let me write it this way: there are people on this forum, who are absolutely sure, they could do as good as 90%.

[DeathFromAbove]

Originally Posted by trdi

That seems surprisingly low. Ok, let me write it this way: there are people on this forum, who are absolutely sure, they could do as good as 90%.

I'll even expand on the parameters given by the author of the article and talk about draft classes 1979-1997.

A 1st round pick has a 92.8% (397/428) chance of making it to the NHL.

But that is just playing, at minimum, 1 game. The rest of it breaks down as follows:

0 games: 7.2%
At least 1 game: 92.8%
At least 100 games: 75.0%
At least 200 games: 68.7%
At least 300 games: 62.9%
At least 400 games: 57.9%
At least 500 games: 53.3%
At least 600 games: 46.0%
At least 700 games: 36.2%
At least 800 games: 29.0%
At least 900 games: 20.1%
At least 1000+ games: 16.1%

You've got a coin flips chance of finding a player that will be in the NHL for at least 500 games.

[theone]

one thing to remember the past 4-6 years every first overall picks have been superstar players and at least 5 good names come up maybe its the scouting thats gotten better from years pasted

[trdi]

Originally Posted by DeathFromAbove

I'll even expand on the parameters given by the author of the article and talk about draft classes 1979-1997.

A 1st round pick has a 92.8% (397/428) chance of making it to the NHL.

But that is just playing, at minimum, 1 game. The rest of it breaks down as follows:

0 games: 7.2%
At least 1 game: 92.8%
At least 100 games: 75.0%
At least 200 games: 68.7%
At least 300 games: 62.9%
At least 400 games: 57.9%
At least 500 games: 53.3%
At least 600 games: 46.0%
At least 700 games: 36.2%
At least 800 games: 29.0%
At least 900 games: 20.1%
At least 1000+ games: 16.1%

You've got a coin flips chance of finding a player that will be in the NHL for at least 500 games.

Thanks, that's interesting.