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About This Page: This is a discussion on LA Kings Talk within the LetsGoKings.com forums, at Los Angeles Kings Hockey Fan Forum. 30th place = 48.2% chance for first overall
29th place = 18.2% chance for first overall
In the 15 years since the NHL has used the draft, only 4 times has the last place team ever got the 1st overall pick anyway. Just so you know.
I think VisionQuest is trying to point out that the odds are completely independent of what has happened historically.
It's not more likely that the worst team will go #1 because it's happened less often than statistics would suggest. It's also not less likely simply because in a small sample size, it's happened less often than statistics would suggest.
48.2%. Statistics don't lie, but the people that use them might.
In the 15 years since the NHL has used the draft, only 4 times has the last place team ever got the 1st overall pick anyway. Just so you know.
You are pretty hilarious... I don't think I've come across someone calling other people's stats erroneous and trying to make them look stupid while being so wrong.
PAST RESULTS HAVE NO INFLUENCE ON THIS LOTTERY.
As such, a 48.2% chance is a lot better than an 18.8% chance, no matter how you cut it!
Furthermore, if you are going to make the argument that past results are relevant, shouldn't they point to the fact that it is MORE likely that last place will retain the pick, seeing as it should be trending towards 48%?
Quote:
Originally Posted by IluvLAK
Even if odds were more likely that you would shoot yourself if you had the 3/6 ratio? That comparison is erroneous because you are leaving out that fact that odds are against the last place team getting the #1 draft pick.
So serious question here...
You are being forced to play Russian Roulette and you are currently sitting in an observation room. The games begin.
15 people in front of you are given a gun with 2 bullets out of 6. Of the 15, 12 die, 3 survive.
15 other people are given guns with 4 bullets out of 6. Of the 15, 4 die, 11 survive.
You have a choice; your gun can have 2 bullets or 4 bullets. Knowing what you've seen, which do you take?
You are pretty hilarious... I don't think I've come across someone calling other people's stats erroneous and trying to make them look stupid while being so wrong.
PAST RESULTS HAVE NO INFLUENCE ON THIS LOTTERY.
As such, a 48.2% chance is a lot better than an 18.8% chance, no matter how you cut it!
Furthermore, if you are going to make the argument that past results are relevant, shouldn't they point to the fact that it is MORE likely that last place will retain the pick, seeing as it should be trending towards 48%?
So serious question here...
You are being forced to play Russian Roulette and you are currently sitting in an observation room. The games begin.
15 people in front of you are given a gun with 2 bullets out of 6. Of the 15, 12 die, 3 survive.
15 other people are given guns with 4 bullets out of 6. Of the 15, 4 die, 11 survive.
You have a choice; your gun can have 2 bullets or 4 bullets. Knowing what you've seen, which do you take?
I didn't call his stats erroneous I called his comparison of russian roulette to the NHL Draft erroneous. Don't throw the Russian Roulette analogy back at me I thought it was a bad caparison to begin with.
My whole point is that we aren't out of this thing even if we don't finish last...we still have a shot at first draft pick. We still have a shot at Stamkos or Doughty or whomever. I'm just trying to not throw the baby out with the bath water.
I didn't call his stats erroneous I called his comparison of russian roulette to the NHL Draft erroneous. Don't throw the Russian Roulette analogy back at me I thought it was a bad caparison to begin with.
My whole point is that we aren't out of this thing even if we don't finish last...we still have a shot at first draft pick. We still have a shot at Stamkos or Doughty or whomever. I'm just trying to not throw the baby out with the bath water.
I see.
I will NOT rip on you for being positive. I wish I could be. It is absolutely okay, if not great, that you are keeping your hopes up and that it isn't the end of the world.
I simply must point out that math is NOT your friend on this issue.
I didn't call his stats erroneous I called his comparison of russian roulette to the NHL Draft erroneous. Don't throw the Russian Roulette analogy back at me I thought it was a bad caparison to begin with.
My whole point is that we aren't out of this thing even if we don't finish last...we still have a shot at first draft pick. We still have a shot at Stamkos or Doughty or whomever. I'm just trying to not throw the baby out with the bath water.
That's true, and a good point.
Of course, IIRC, the second worst team (#2 in the lottery) has never won the lottery...
Ultimately, all that matters is what DL does with the pick where we have it. I liked the idea of getting the first pick just for the sake of being able to dangle it our there to other teams and see what they would offer but in the end I am sure Stamkos would have been our guy. If we drop to the second or third slots, I think the same thing plays out. I can easily see a number of teams who will want a chance of picking in the top three. Getting a high caliber young d-man and picks is something I think DL would consider. Free agency is thin defensively and he has done it in his past. Once Stamkos is out of the equation, I believe DL will be much more aggressive to fill in that hole with NHL ready players via a trade rather than through the draft. He has enough subsequent picks to do that.
As I have said in other posts, the Kings currently have 32 wins and could finish with 33. They have enough talent up front, young players coming up and an off-season of moves to win another 8-10 games next year. Add to that being buyers at the deadline and not sellers and that should put us in position to be at or near that eighth spot. Say what you will but I want the last 10 games of the season to be must wins to get in rather than hoping we lose to get a high pick.
crAss
We're screwed.