Cheer up everyone, the odds are on our side

[Crusader Knight]

The raw odds of the kings draft position are as follows

Kings Draft:
1st 18.8%
2nd 42.0%
3rd 39.2%

However by the law of averages those odds wont pan out as some places such as 3rd have overachieved and picked 1st too many times while other draft positions such as 4th have under achieved and picked first too few times. I made a chart of the over and underachievers (the higher the % underachieved, the more their odds have increase by the law of averages)

	times				
#	won	% won	odds	% underachieved	
1	3	25.0%	25.0%	0.0%	overall (6.5%)
2	0	0.0%	18.8%	18.8%	
3	4	33.3%	14.2%	-19.1%	
4	1	8.3%	10.7%	2.4%	
5	2	16.7%	8.1%	-8.6%	
6	0	0.0%	6.2%	6.2%	
7	1	8.3%	4.7%	-3.6%	
8	8	8.3%	3.6%	-4.7%	
9	0	0.0%	2.7%	2.7%	
10	0	0.0%	2.1%	2.1%	
11	0	0.0%	1.5%	1.5%	
12	0	0.0%	1.1%	1.1%	
13	0	0.0%	0.8%	0.8%	
14	0	0.0%	0.5%	0.5%

So by this logic the adjusted odds are

Kings draft:
1st 37.6%
2nd 25.0%
3rd 20.1%


Of course its not perfect and the sample sizes are still too small but 29th is definitely due to draft first

[borinka99]

Your "logic" isn't logical.

[photomike]

???????

[Wolvie]

Oh

My

God.

[CooLz]

the #1 rule in statistics is that statistics has no memory. for example, if you flip a coin 5 times, and you get 5 straight heads, the next time you flip the coin, it's still a 50/50 chance.

[Brandon]

I'm just hoping we pinh pong outselves into that 60.8% that snags the #1 or #2 pick. The only thing that'll make me happy about not getting Stamkos, is getting Doughty.

[King'sPawn]

I've never seen so much thought put into something completely devoid of logic.

[nosoupforyou]

man, the casinos must love you

[Leatherface]

WORST THREAD EVER.

sorry, I had to say it.



**** me.

[davndea]

60.8% chance of staying the same or moving up, with only a 39.2% of moving down. When we were in last we had a 51.2% chance of moving down. So by this logic we are doing better.

[Crusader Knight]

oh you guys are no fun this was supposed to be a 'for entertainment purposes only' thread. of course statistics have no memory but over 1000 runs the results tend to equal the odds, but 12 results though aren't anywhere close to significant.

[Fyzzix]

Originally Posted by CooLz

the #1 rule in statistics is that statistics has no memory. for example, if you flip a coin 5 times, and you get 5 straight heads, the next time you flip the coin, it's still a 50/50 chance.

So that means...at the casino...where it shows the past roulette...that means...oh god...

[AdGuy]

There is smoke coming out of my ears.