The "Run Up" Thread

[dgrycan]

Iowa is done. Huckabee and Obama with big (and surprising) wins. New Hampshire is only five days away.

Your thoughts?

I'm glad Hilary took one on the chin. I think she's run a very arrogant and misguided campaign, and it backfired big time. She thought she could bank women as automatics, and yet it seems more women went with Obama over her. Obama's speech tonight was very powerful and confident, and it'll be tough to back off the momentum he'll get from this win. I thought Edwards said that Iowa was a must win, but apparently he's going to chug along. If he is willing to take a VP acceptance from either Hillary or Obama, it'll be a tough ticket for the Republicans to fight.

On the red side, I think Romney took a shot to the balls. It's a small sample, to be sure, but I just don't know if the whole "negative spin of doom" campaigns are going to work like the have in the past - especially since people are I think wising up to the fact that it's all bull***t and the people spinning it are the same if not worse.

Dodd and Biden are officially gone. And who knew that Duncan Hunter was still in it?

Pretty interesting evening, I thought.

[4/10/82]

i caucused with the democrats tonight. very interesting. in my precinct, dodd was done before he started, the kucinich folks went to richardson, and the obama people left the room because it was too crowded. the biden folks weren't viable and went mostly to clinton, while edwards picked up a small handful. it wound up with richardson and clinton in a dead heat at the bottom, with edwards a bit higher, and obama with half the crowd. at the end, a couple of obama folks defected for richardson, so that he would finish higher than clinton. not just hapy to beat clinton, they wanted her to finish last among the viable candidates.
i live near iowa state, so there are a lot of young people, who went overwhelmingly for obama.
the cat can work a crowd. he gives good speech. i caucused for edwards because he spoke a lot about the butter-and-egg issues that the others have ignored, for the most part.
if obama continues his juggernaut, i hope he doesn't sell out to the democratic leadership council crowd. those people are corporate scum.

[KINGS17]

The only thing that matters now is if the winners carry this momentum into New Hampshire and on into super Tuesday.

I think Obama may have a chance to do that, Huckabee doesn't.

[dgrycan]

Originally Posted by KINGS17

The only thing that matters now is if the winners carry this momentum into New Hampshire and on into super Tuesday.

I think Obama may have a chance to do that, Huckabee doesn't.

While I agree with you on Huckabee in New Hampshire, his momentum may mean something in South Carolina.

[SmytheKing]

Originally Posted by dgrycan

While I agree with you on Huckabee in New Hampshire, his momentum may mean something in South Carolina.

Yeah. Possibly. I'm just not sure. Guiliani didn't even bother in Iowa. I think he, McCain, and Romney will all do better in NH. Read an article that the reason Huckabee did so well was because of evangelicals (I know, you're shocked). In NH, I figure he'll come in 4th and that might hurt some of his mo going into SC. For the first time in a long time though, the race is totally wide open. Obama is probably the closest to a frontrunner, but we'll see after NH.

[4/10/82]

Originally Posted by SmytheKing

Guiliani didn't even bother in Iowa.

i think giuliani passed on iowa because he couldn't have won here. his new york swagger would not have worked at all. iowans do not, as a rule, like braggarts and tough guys. the "aw shucks" homespun types like huckabee speak to the conservatives in this state, many of whom are devoutly religious, so a thrice-married lapsed catholic would not have done so well.

i don't know how to adequately explain it, but the culture is very different in iowa. they are preternaturally polite, as a rule, and they don't take to people who talk too much or too fast. it was a very difficult adjustment period when i moved to iowa. when people ask you your opinion, they don't actually want to hear it. because if it doesn't agree with theirs, they take it as an insult. i learned that the hard way at a faculty meeting.

which is a long way of saying, giuliani would have gotten flogged here, not unlike clinton. haughty know-it-all does not sell well in the corn belt.

[Joe Hoya]

In other news, Giuliani's platform is still 9/11.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/poli..._campaign.html

[Maddogg420]

Originally Posted by jbruin152

In other news, Giuliani's platform is still 9/11.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/poli..._campaign.html

Gosh, theres a shock. "Remember folks.. we was attacked! And I was there. Vote for me."

[Leonidas]

Originally Posted by 4/10/82

i caucused with the democrats tonight. very interesting. in my precinct, dodd was done before he started, the kucinich folks went to richardson, and the obama people left the room because it was too crowded. the biden folks weren't viable and went mostly to clinton, while edwards picked up a small handful. it wound up with richardson and clinton in a dead heat at the bottom, with edwards a bit higher, and obama with half the crowd. at the end, a couple of obama folks defected for richardson, so that he would finish higher than clinton. not just hapy to beat clinton, they wanted her to finish last among the viable candidates.
i live near iowa state, so there are a lot of young people, who went overwhelmingly for obama.
the cat can work a crowd. he gives good speech. i caucused for edwards because he spoke a lot about the butter-and-egg issues that the others have ignored, for the most part.
if obama continues his juggernaut, i hope he doesn't sell out to the democratic leadership council crowd. those people are corporate scum.

Great description of the caucus. Thanks. I saw my niece and her husband, who live and work near Iowa State, a few days ago when they were in LA. She was going Obama and he was undecided. They were interested to be going to their first caucus.

[irisher]

Here's a link that you can use to check the incoming results for NH. It updates every 5 minutes: http://www.concordmonitor.com/

Early returns:

Dems: HC barely ahead of BO, with JE lagging badly.
Reps: McCain solidly ahead of Romney.

[DLEOS91745]

Originally Posted by irisher

Here's a link that you can use to check the incoming results for NH. It updates every 5 minutes: http://www.concordmonitor.com/

Early returns:

Dems: HC barely ahead of BO, with JE lagging badly.
Reps: McCain solidly ahead of Romney.

I'm just using Drudge... Nights like this don't come too often, I mean between the game and the NH primary...