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Originally Posted by Leonidas  The Mason-Dixon poll has Clinton at 48% to Obama's 43% with undecided at 8%. Don't know if the missing point is some fraction they split or 'Other'...? TPM Election Central | Talking Points Memo |
I'm guessing the current undecideds will break toward Clinton by about 3 to 1 putting the numbers at Clinton 54% to Obama 45% because of the old and white nature of the PA electorate.
One wild card in the equation is that students are hard to reach with land line polls because of their tendency to use cells only and I think an unpolled population of students will split by about 3 to 1 toward Obama.
Second puzzle. Black voters are supposed to be about 83% Obama. Really? I think they'll break a bit more toward him.
Possible result then is 53% Clinton and 47% Obama.
But that's guesswork math and me trying to be dispassionate. What does my gut say? Clinton wins by at least 9% because whitey just keeps on being whitey. |
Yes, it's impossible for any reasonable person to have any doubts about Obama...